Scientific American, May 2009:

In China the water table under the North China Plain, an area that produces more than half of the country’s wheat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. Overpumping has used up most of the water in a shallow aquifer there, forcing well drillers to turn to the region’s deep aquifer, which is not replenishable. A report by the World Bank foresees “catastrophic consequences for future generations” unless water use and supply can quickly be brought back into balance.

As water tables have fallen and irrigation wells have gone dry, China’s wheat crop, the world’s largest, has declined by 8 percent since it peaked at 123 million tons in 1997. In that same period China’s rice production dropped 4 percent. The world’s most populous nation may soon be importing massive quantities of grain.

But water shortages are even more worrying in India. There the margin between food consumption and survival is more precarious. Millions of irrigation wells have dropped water tables in almost every state. As Fred Pearce reported in New Scientist: Half of India’s traditional hand-dug wells and millions of shallower tube wells have already dried up, bringing a spate of suicides among those who rely on them. Electricity blackouts are reaching epidemic proportions in states where half of the electricity is used to pump water from depths of up to a kilometer [3,300 feet].

A World Bank study reports that 15 percent of India’s food supply is produced by mining groundwater. Stated otherwise, 175 million Indians consume grain produced with water from irrigation wells that will soon be exhausted. The continued shrinking of water supplies could lead to unmanageable food shortages and social conflict.

I get why this catastrophe is under-reported – it is happening in non-Western countries, and the trend is long-term, not the big story of this year. Although this news is worrisome, what bothers me more is how it takes us so much closer to the breakdown of society. In the next few years, it seems clear that food will become a scarcer resource. Experts studying the trend will make the assumption that all other factors will remain the same – wars, diseases, economies. There’s a possibility that they will factor in global warming…

The neglect is regarding the rare events that will definitely happen one day – an asteroid/comet strike or a supervolcano. In out deepest past these substantially reduced the human population. But back then there were plenty of edible resources to go around, and we had far superior survival skills – in those days we were less feeble and pampered.

When you combine our current food crises with a possible catastrophic event circa 2012, it is obvious that food is going to be a valuable commodity. I repeat, buy long-lasting food now – in bulk.

While I read many blogs & sites devoted to survivalism, it’s not too often I feel compelled to share what I find. Today is one of those rarities, a short, readable, intelligent look into the underlying skills a modern-day survivalist requires -written by a blogger with a blog called Hegemonicon. It doesn’t focus on things like hunting skills…

He starts off by mentioning what I have been preaching for almost a decade: 2012 doesn’t need to be a dead cert, it’s OK to prepare for the worst, just in case. You don’t expect your house to ever burn down, but most sensible people have their home insured against fire:

But the idea of preparing for a low-probability, high-cost event isn’t so strange – we pay for fire insurance, after all. Survivalism is just insurance of a different sort.

Here are his 6 principles, and my comments regarding how they might relate to 2012 preparations:

Prepare for Disasters in Proportion to Their Likelihood.
You are far more likely to die of a heart attack or car crash… Agreed. Wear a seat belt, don’t drink and drive, watch your diet, exercise. These are survivalist tactics. Don’t marry an axe wielding maniac. Don’t sleep in gutters. Don’t fly in a small plane during bad weather.

Think Like an Economist
“And having one or two guns is probably a good investment. But each additional gun is less useful than that first one, because the number of situations where you’ll need that many guns at once gets lower and lower…. Remember, you have limited resources – spend them where they’ll have the most impact.” Approaching 2012, you also have limited time. If you devote 3 years of your life to surviving 2012, and it fails to eventuate, would that then be a waste of 3-5% of your life? The trick is to find a way of having your survivalist tendencies and eat your cake too. Choose a bunker/basement that suits your normal lifestyle. Like wine? Get a house with a wine cellar, and in 2013, convert it back to a wine cellar. Like being self-sufficient? Use 2012 as an excuse to move to the country and grow your own food.

Train Your Brain
“The ability to think rationally, creatively, and strategically – to analyze a situation and come up with the best possible solution, is a useful skill in every possible situation you will face.” Play violent video games. Hunt at your supermarket. Test your peripheral vision when in crowded environments. Crosswords/Sudoku. Pretend you are 90-years-old and you want to stay mentally active. Attend a Murder Mystery Weekend. Play paintball.

Favor Skills Over Objects
I’ll just quote this one in full, it is so good:

The future is uncertain – that’s the entire point of survivalism. Your preparations should take this uncertainty into account. You don’t know if you’re going to be able to get to your stockpile, or have enough gas to drive to your hideout, or trade your gold bars to anyone. Any item used for survival is also a liability, by virtue of the fact that you’re depending on it. Objects can be taken away from you, and if society really does break down, they probably will be. Skills on the other hand, are inside your head – you can’t lose them unless you forget them. So it’s more useful to learn to farm, or hunt, or fish, or gather, than to stockpile. It’s better to learn how to build a shelter than to have a bunker. It’s better to know how to fix a car than to spend thousands turning one into your survival-mobile. The more skills you have, the more you’ll be able to turn any situation to your advantage.

You are Not Legend
“Society may collapse, but people will still be around. You should plan to deal with them.” Get out more. Be at a bar at 3am and have arguments. Join the parent’s committee of your kids school. Get a job where you deal with the public. Join a political organisation. Get used to dealing with people.

You are Going to Die.
It is a fact. It is why few elderly folk can be found who care about 2012. Why put effort into surviving 2012 if you are close to meeting your maker anyway? By questioning your real motivation for surviving 2012, you might just learn something about yourself… Is it really for your kids, or fellow humans? Then maybe you can help out in other ways, here and now….

Barton M Biggs is the former chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley, and he now runs the hedge fund Traxis Partners based in New York. So you’d think that he is neither mad nor is he a loner. So it is a refreshing surpise to find out that his new book, Wealth, War and Wisdom, advocates building a safe haven which is “self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food”.

“I’m just suggesting,” says Mr Biggs, “that if you can afford it you should invest in a bolthole. A farm, perhaps, where you could live for a month and survive.”

“I am talking Swiss Family Robinson,” he says, referring to the famous 1812 novel about a Swiss family that survives after being shipwrecked in the East Indies. “You should have food, water, medicine, clothes. And possibly AK47s to fire over the heads of any guys, depending on how bad things become.”

He cites war, food shortage & flu pandemic as just some of the reasons for setting up a safe spot.

The article at the BBC finds other mon-mad people with similar survival ideas. For whatever reason, regular folk are sensing a need to prepare like never before.

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From the trainspotting variety:

Derek is compiling a survival guide on how to cope after the total collapse of society. It is, as you can imagine, a big job… What this disaster might be is anyone’s guess, says Derek, but he’s got his hunches.

To the pro:

For defenders of the movement, like Jim Rawles who runs a survivalist blog and lives “in a very lightly populated region west of the Rockies” this perversion by a “lunatic fringe” distorts the true message of survivalism, which is, in many ways, just about personal freedom… Their life is almost entirely self-sufficient: They keep livestock, hunt elk and the children are schooled at home. Stored away in the ranch somewhere is a three-year supply of food.

CNN meets these two survivalists. And nicely points out that they are preparing for whatever, just in case.