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Another Expert Agrees With Dark Comet Theory

February 21, 2013 – 11:31 am | No Comment

Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

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2012 Scenarios That Can’t (or probably won’t) Happen

December 18, 2012 – 10:41 pm | No Comment
2012 Scenarios That Can’t (or probably won’t) Happen

Regardless of their original feasibility, the following are just not going to bother us significantly or any differently this year because we’d see them coming already:

Nibiru / Planet X
Peak Oil
Global Warming
Killer Comet (excluding dark comets)
Asteroid
Rise of the Machines (like in The Terminator movies)

I’m not dismissing them entirely, just from a happening on Dec 21, 2o12 context.
Also unlikely are the following:

Anything to do with President Obama – he’s already had a full term to do whatever
A new temple at Temple Mount – hard to build in 3 days
Supervolcanic eruption – it isn’t certain, but some form of warning sign  would be expected
LHC – Large Hadron Collider – I’m not aware of anything new happening there this week

These are still possible:

Supernova – although the Maya would have needed some kind of quantum physics voodoo to see that coming faster than the speed of light
Dark Comet – their mere existence is barely reported …

How Will I Know If Disaster Strikes?

December 16, 2012 – 2:20 pm | No Comment
How Will I Know If Disaster Strikes?

The short answer: for anything except for power grids going down, watch TV, listen the radio, monitor internet services. And if the power grid goes down – you will most likely notice. Unless you are asleep… If your bedside clock radio has backup batteries, remove them so that you might notice.
According to my research the most likely catastrophe that can occur on Dec 21 is a massive solar storm. This won’t harm humans directly, but by taking down power grids it could be a real tragedy. Usually we get a couple of days warning that a storm is likely, but perhaps a massive storm acts differently.  These are the ways we know if a solar storm is in progress:

Web: there are a number of sites that provide “space weather” information
Look up: accompanying a storm of the magnitude to take down grids will be auroras everywhere (except for, possibly, places close …

Wired & The Science of Doomsday

January 20, 2012 – 1:06 pm | No Comment
Wired & The Science of Doomsday

After all the poorly written 2012 news items of recent weeks, Wired has come out with an excellent article on the scientific possibilities of doomsday. I’ve summarized their list and added my comments:
SuperVolcano

Wired: Yellowstone’s giant volcanic crater has risen about 10 inches in the last decade, suggesting molten rock may be building up underneath. During its lifetime, the megavolcano has probably experienced more than a dozen giant eruptions, Lay says. Lately, it’s been blowing off steam through little vents, but it’s unclear whether it’s gearing up for another Earth-shattering blast.
Rob: The scenarios that scientists should be wary of dismissing are those that have not been witnessed in the modern era. Supervolcanoes might have unique symptoms of an impending eruption. And there’s always the chance that they give us no warning. While they are a major long-term risk, the odds of one erupting in 2012 is low.
Asteroid Accident
Wired: …

Doom ‘n’ Gloom Daily

October 29, 2011 – 11:28 pm | No Comment
Doom ‘n’ Gloom Daily

I subscribe to just about every blog and news service that could, maybe, possibly, have a story meaningful to the 2012 meme. One of the very best is The Extinction Protocol. There’s not much commentary, but they relentlessly bombard me with every earthquake and volcanic eruption, as well as every cluster of tremors, or clusters near volcanoes, which might mean something might happen. Plus disease outbreaks, forest fires, social unrest, tsunamis and all the rest. Nothing escapes their attention, and in their eyes it is all evidence that the end is nigh. I you want to lose sleep and continually worry, it is a good site to frequent. They are the key reason I keep buying more gold!
Here are some recent examples of their stories…
One of the biggest stories in recent weeks concerns the Canary Islands, where offshore volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are causing concern:

Villagers are mentioning “bubbles” coming up …

GPS Disasters – More Than Just Navigation

August 15, 2011 – 4:41 pm | One Comment
GPS Disasters – More Than Just Navigation

As our world becomes more and more reliant on technology, so serious system collapses become more likely. I’ve been reading all about GPS jammers at New Scientist (the article is online at Gizmodo), and I learned that they affect more than just your Garmin or TomTom. Actually 90% of GPS receivers use the data for timing not location. If GPS signals are lost, these are some of the services that will be affected:

Cell phone towers
Air traffic control
Emergency pagers
ATM machines
Electric grids
Stock exchanges
…and navigation (obviously), but not just your car – think freight in a just-in-time environment, emergency services, shipping and train routing

The first four of the above services were affected in San Diego for 2 hours in January 2007. The culprit was later discovered to be a naval exercise nearby, where they blocked radio signals. However you don’t need to be the Navy to have the same effect. Truck drivers using …

Peak Novelty – Some Indicators

August 13, 2011 – 1:37 am | No Comment
Peak Novelty – Some Indicators

The novelty theory of the late Terrence McKenna is a mainstay of 2012 discussions. McKenna allegedly arrived at a Nov 2012 date prior to learning of the Long Count calendar. He proposed a singularity of infinite complexity in 2012, at which point anything and everything imaginable will occur simultaneously. The methodology is interesting, but not scientific given that previous peaks of novelty were determined using his own personal and cultural biases.

However, if McKenna was correct, we can expect to see a lot of movement in certain areas leading up to late 2012. These areas would involve the building blocks where man and machine and can rapidly innovate. Here’s some news from today that is food for thought:

Artificial Animals – Researchers say they have created the first ever animal with artificial information in its genetic code. The technique, they say, could give biologists “atom-by-atom control” over the molecules in living organisms. It won’t …

Scientific American – “The End” Issue (updated)

September 24, 2010 – 8:40 pm | 2 Comments
Scientific American – “The End” Issue (updated)

There’s just no letting up – the End of The World meme keeps snowballing, and while we expected Fox News to milk it (and they’ve only just begun, IMHO), it is a little bit surprising to see Scientific American to get it on the act. Numerous articles covering the topic are in this month’s issue, such as:

Could modern civilization really come to an end? Experts take stock of eight doomsday scenarios (subscription required…)
Why We’re Suckers for Stories of Our Own Demise

The latter begins with:
Once again, the world is about to end. The latest source of doomsday dread comes courtesy of the ancient Mayans, whose calendar runs out in 2012, as interpreted by a cadre of opportunistic authors and blockbuster movie directors.
UPDATE: Here are the odds they give on a few scenarios, in order of destructiveness, with the worst last:

Solar SuperStorm – 5% in the next 15 years
Runaway …

Open Question: What Could the Mayans Predict?

September 23, 2010 – 3:03 pm | 12 Comments
Open Question: What Could the Mayans Predict?

[I mean scientific predictions, not prophecy]
Most of the Mayan books were burned by the Spanish conquistadors, and there are bound to be plenty of Mayan monuments that are yet to be discovered. Or the knowledge may have only been transmitted orally. Therefore it is quite possible that the ancient Mayans did indeed specify a disaster for 2012, and we are just unaware of it.
It is also possible (and to my mind most likely) that they inherited the Long Count calendar from an earlier or visiting civilization. Regardless, the question is the same – what type of event could have been predicted in ancient times, for Dec 2012?
I’m not looking for evidence that similar predictions were ever accurately made, just the possibility, because with the Long Count calendar we really are grasping at straws.
My personal preference is the return of an asteroid or comet, or meteor shower, and the accompanying potential for …

22 Doomsday Scenarios for 2012

August 21, 2009 – 2:01 pm | 2 Comments
22 Doomsday Scenarios for 2012

This week I updated my list of possible doom’n’gloom scenarios that we might face in 2012, ie the end of the world in 2012. I’ve ranked them according to probability & predictability. Here’s the top 5:
1. Asteroid/Meteor/Comet (watch out for my article on this, that names the culprit!)2. Coronal Mass Ejection3. Magnetic Pole Shift4. Cosmic Superwave5. Religious Apocalypse (yep, this list lacks any personal bias…)
Read the full article for descriptions and links.