15% Chance of X-Flares Today
Usually NOAA forecasters tells us that the odds of an X-flare (the highest category of solar flares) is less than 1%, even at what is supposedly the peak of the solar cycle. Today they say 15%, and 40% chance of a lesser M-Flare, due to a very large sunspot pointing at us. Read more at SpaceWeather.com.
It is only the biggest X-Flares that we should be fearing. Anything less than say X10 isn’t worth mentioning. But as we go up the scale (each number is 10 times more than the previous), then it gets scary. To put any flare today in perspective, the Carrington Event was a pair of flares,
The biggest flares since 1976 are listed here – a couple of dozen greater than X10 and only 6 greater than X15. The best guess regarding the Carrington Event says greater than X10, but they don’t attempt to put a precise number on it.
But if see auroras in the sky, and you live somewhere within 30 degrees of the equator, it might be a good idea to go underground for a few hours…
