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Another Expert Agrees With Dark Comet Theory

February 21, 2013 – 11:31 am | No Comment

Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

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Home » Solar Cycle 24, Solar Storm, Sunspots

Giant Sunspot on the Horizon

Submitted by on January 12, 2013 – 8:54 am2 Comments

AR1654 is getting bigger as it turns toward Earth. Not only is the chance of flares increasing, but also the chance of an Earth-directed eruption.This could be the sunspot that breaks the recent lengthy spell of calm space weather around our planet.

It is all about potential. While a killer solar storm could catch us unawares in the quietest part of the solar cycle, the odds of it happening greatly increase:

  • at the height of the solar cycle (more sunspots to erupt)
  • from clusters of sunspots
  • from large sunspots

If sunspot AR1654 sends an X-flare our way, it will still  most likely be one of the hundreds per century that do us and our satellites no harm at all. But because it is a large sunspot, pointing our way soon, then the potential for the next Carrington Event is there. While scientists say that the odds are something like 8% (or much less) per solar cycle peak, readers of this blog should be smart enough to add in the potential that the Mayan calendar was pointing to major natural event.

Keep an eye on SpaceWeather.com (even better, sign up for their email and SMS alerts), and if there is an X-Flare greater than say 15 (which is 15x more powerful than a 1) – activate your escape/survival plans.

SOLAR FLARE ALERTS: Would you like a call when solar flares are underway? X-flare alerts are available fromhttp://spaceweathertext.com (text) and http://spaceweatherphone.com (voice).

 

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