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Another Expert Agrees With Dark Comet Theory

February 21, 2013 – 11:31 am | No Comment

Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

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Home » Solar Storm, Sunspots

Sun Extremely Quiet: No Solar Storm??

Submitted by on December 21, 2012 – 2:26 pmNo Comment

Ordinarily more sun spots means more solar storms. Get some sunspots combining and a major storm is possible.

But right now it looks like there won’t even be a minor X -Class flare. NASA rates the odds at just 1%.

The following is the latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast:

 

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).

 

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak around 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 7.2 nT at 20/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Dec, 22 Dec) and at quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Dec).

 

III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec

Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

 

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 20 Dec 114
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 120

 

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/008

 

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/1

(short answer is that our Sun is very quiet for this part of the cycle, and nothing untoward is expected in the next few days)

The other report we have is from SpaceWeather.com:

How long will the quiet last? The sun has not produced a major flare in weeks. NOAA forecasters say the trend is unlikely to change today with only a slim 15% chance of M-flares and a 1% chance of X-class flares.

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