Sun Extremely Quiet: No Solar Storm??
Ordinarily more sun spots means more solar storms. Get some sunspots combining and a major storm is possible.
But right now it looks like there won’t even be a minor X -Class flare. NASA rates the odds at just 1%.
The following is the latest Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast:
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak around 500 km/s. Total IMF reached 7.2 nT at 20/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Dec, 22 Dec) and at quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Dec 114
Predicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 20 Dec 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Dec 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/1
(short answer is that our Sun is very quiet for this part of the cycle, and nothing untoward is expected in the next few days)
The other report we have is from SpaceWeather.com:
How long will the quiet last? The sun has not produced a major flare in weeks. NOAA forecasters say the trend is unlikely to change today with only a slim 15% chance of M-flares and a 1% chance of X-class flares.
