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Another Expert Agrees With Dark Comet Theory

February 21, 2013 – 11:31 am | No Comment

Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

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Home » Earthquakes, Eclipses

Britton LaRoche: Lunar Eclipse Could Cause Tokai Quake

Submitted by on June 8, 2012 – 7:27 pm4 Comments

From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment.

The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.

[Source: About.com]

Shinichi Sakai from University of Tokyo predicted on 23. January 2012 probability of major earthquake during next four years is 70% and during 30 years is 98%.

[Source: Wikipedia]

So it looks like a case of not if, but when. Well Britton LaRoche has been studying historical earthquake records, and like myself he has determined that lunar eclipses are a factor. Whilst I looked at global earthquakes, Britton’s focus has been Japan.

The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140)will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.

Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan’s shore.

The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.

For me, it has been enough to do my initial research (showing an increase in major quakes within one day of a lunar eclipse), and make a couple of blog posts about other people having similar conclusions. I’ve also emailed 15 earthquake scientists who I feel are best qualified to look at my data. They were not easy to choose, because they all tend to do very specialized or localized research, whereas my study is extremely general. So far only one (from the USGS) has looked at the data and replied:

I’ve wondered the same thing. Some geologists have argued that there is a slightly increased chance of earthquakes near full or new moons when gravitational exertions are at their greatest. Others do not think there is enough significance to matter, since it is impossible to apply to earthquake predictions for specific places or dates. In my own opinion, I think it’s interesting.

A problem with this sort of research is when knowing when to stop. I’ve decided to stop. Otherwise, the directions you could take are never-ending:

– are the resulting quakes location specific – under the eclipse path, at a 90° angle…
– are the resulting quakes time specific – a certain time period before/after an eclipse?
– is the effect cumulative, in that it only works when there haven’t been major quakes for a while?

4 Comments »

  • Deja Q says:

    Earthquakes are a tough thing to predict–I don’t believe we will ever completely solve the mystery of when large quakes will occur. I have come up with a good analogy.

    If you were to spend a week or two watching a glacier flow into the sea, you would periodically see huge bergs calving off and splashing into the water. The longer the time between these calving events, the more likely they are to occur. But can you ever really predict which section of the glacier is next to fall, and when? There are multiple factors which influence the calving events, such as temperature, wind, time interval since the last event, etc., but the calvings do not follow a predictable schedule. All the factors, when present, may make the event more likely, but if the glacier is NOT READY to calve, then it will not happen. On the other hand, if a section of glacier is ready to fall, then those other factors (temp, wind, time interval) may not even be peaking. It may calve with only the slightest nudge. And who can predict which section along a glacier’s leading edge will be the next to go? Impossible to predict in my opinion, the best we can do is determine when it is MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. Which is exactly what your research shows.

    Cheers!

  • Donalh says:

    Did you ever stop to think that if the moon did not exist then neither would we. Incredible co-incidence that this remote piece of relatively dead material is responsible for Life on Earth. The body that put that body in that precise position, no closer or further away (death and destruction) sure knew what it was up to.

  • bernard says:

    hello Deja Q,
    Did you know that earthquakes can be predicted.
    The time, the day and the place.
    for years and years in advance.
    Its all scientific, its all mathematics.
    Try reading the earthquake timetable,
    Earthquakes arrive on schedule, just like a train, plane or bus schedule.
    from bernard

  • bernard says:

    Dear Robert Bast again,
    When William Herschel discovered Neptune he noticed it ‘wobbled’ and reasoned that a nearby planet must be causing Neptune to ‘wobble’, we all know that.
    We all know too, that the Earth is 93 million miles from the Sun.
    What is lesser known is that Neptune is TEN TIMES THIS DISTANCE FROM Uranus.
    So how can the planet Uranus make the planet Neptune ‘wobble’ from that distance.
    In an electric solar system it does not matter how far away a planet is.
    That planet’s gravitational field will ride ‘piggy-back’ fashion on the electric flux of the electric solar system.
    See http://www.bernardboyd.webs.com
    All quite free of charge, you may care to read ‘The Earthquake Timetable’ and also ‘Solved, The Sunspot Mystery’ where much is said about the electric solar system and the prediction of earthquakes.
    From Bernard.

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