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Another Expert Agrees With Dark Comet Theory

February 21, 2013 – 11:31 am | No Comment

Astronomer David Asher (from Armagh University) has agreed with Bill Napier and Janaki Wickramasinghe (Cardiff University) that “dark comets” are real and dangerous.
The following quotes are from a paper by Napier and Asher published in Astronomy & Geophysics.
http://star.arm.ac.uk/preprints/2009/539.pdf

We know that about one bright comet (of absolute magnitude as bright as 7, comparable to Halley’s Comet) arrives in the visibility zone (perihelion q<5AU, say) each year from the Oort cloud. It seems to be securely established that ~1–2% of these are captured into Halleytype (HT) orbits. The dynamical lifetime of a body in such an orbit can be estimated, from which the expected number of HT comets is perhaps ~3000. The actual number of active HT comets is ~25. This discrepancy of at least two powers of 10 in the expected impact rate from comets as deduced from this theoretical argument on the one hand, and observations on the other, is …

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Home » Asteroids, NASA

Asteroid 2012 DA14: Earth Impact in 2013?

Submitted by on March 5, 2012 – 4:53 pm3 Comments

An article has been appearing in blogs and at forums. It says, in part:

To avert a possible catastrophe – this time set for February 2013 – scientists suggest confronting asteroid 2012 DA14 with either paint or big guns. The stickler is that time has long run out to build a spaceship to carry out the operation.

­NASA’s data shows the 60-meter asteroid, spotted by Spanish stargazers in February, will whistle by Earth in 11 months. Its trajectory will bring it within a hair’s breadth of our planet, raising fears of a possible collision.

The asteroid, known as DA14, will pass by our planet in February 2013 at a distance of under 27,000 km (16,700 miles). This is closer than the geosynchronous orbit of some satellites.

There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster, NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Russia’s University of Electronics and Mathematics.

“The Earth’s gravitational field will alter the asteroid’s path significantly. Further scrupulous calculation is required to estimate the threat of collision,” said Dr. Dunham, as transcribed by Russia’s Izvestia. “The asteroid may break into dozens of small pieces, or several large lumps may split from it and burn up in the atmosphere. The type of the asteroid and its mineral structure can be determined by spectral analysis. This will help predict its behavior in the atmosphere and what should be done to prevent the potential threat,” said Dr. Dunham.

Now, David Dunham is an expert, but he is not representing NASA. And the article originates from Russian news service RT.

NASA’s official stance is that the asteroid is not a potential hazard until 2020. They have not hidden how close it will come in 2013. There seems to be differences in size estimates as well. NASA has it at 44m in diameter, RT says 60m. The general rule of thumb is that 50m or less will break up in the atmosphere, but larger will remain intact and is therefore more hazardous.

Reasons for ignoring this story:

  • Last June 2011 MD came within 11,000 miles of Earth. 16,800 miles is still close, but closer asteroids have not struck us
  • The story came from Russia, and possibly the message got muddled via transcription and translation
  • Dunham has not published the information himself anywhere
  • NASA would not neglect to include Earth’s gravity in their calculations. Perhaps Dunham has added gravity to an equation that already included it?

3 Comments »

  • Raymond says:

    “possibly the message got muddled via transcription and translation….” Did anyone think about reasking the Question on whether or not this Asteriod might collide with the Earth? Man, alot of these “Experts” have the Title “Dr.” & “Ph.D’s” after their Names & they DON’T THINK TO REASK A QUESTION???? Are you kidding me???? Like: “Are You Sure It Might Colide With The Earth?” or “Are You Sure Calculations Are Correct?” My Response: “We’re In Trouble!!!!”

  • Raymond says:

    You’ve got a Asteriod that is 60 meters (197.80 feet) across. Large enough to “wipe a City off the map” is it hits one & no one thinks to reask the Question. (shaking my head)

  • steve says:

    if it does happen just aim some big guns at that thing and fire away

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