{"id":4671,"date":"2012-12-21T14:26:50","date_gmt":"2012-12-21T03:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/?p=4671"},"modified":"2012-12-21T14:26:54","modified_gmt":"2012-12-21T03:26:54","slug":"sun-extremely-quiet-no-solar-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/2012\/12\/sun-extremely-quiet-no-solar-storm-4671.html","title":{"rendered":"Sun Extremely Quiet: No Solar Storm??"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ordinarily more sun spots means more solar storms. Get some sunspots combining and a major storm is possible.<\/p>\n

But right now it looks like there won’t even be a minor X -Class flare. NASA rates the odds at just 1%.<\/p>\n

The following is the latest Joint USAF\/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\u00a0 $\"\"$ <\/a><\/p>\n
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19\/2100Z to 20\/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.<\/p>\n
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19\/2100Z to 20\/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak around 500 km\/s. Total IMF reached 7.2 nT at 20\/1236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20\/1304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV\u00a0at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 264 pfu.<\/p>\n
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Dec, 22 Dec) and at quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Dec).<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
III. Event probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec<\/p>\n
Class M 05\/05\/05
\nClass X 01\/01\/01
\nProton 01\/01\/01
\nPCAF green<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux<\/p>\n
Observed 20 Dec 114
\nPredicted 21 Dec-23 Dec 115\/115\/115
\n90 Day Mean 20 Dec 120<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
V. Geomagnetic A Indices<\/p>\n
Observed Afr\/Ap 19 Dec 004\/004
\nEstimated Afr\/Ap 20 Dec 005\/005
\nPredicted Afr\/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec 006\/005-006\/005-006\/008<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec-23 Dec<\/p>\n
A. Middle Latitudes<\/p>\n
Active 05\/05\/10
\nMinor Storm 01\/01\/01
\nMajor-severe storm 01\/01\/01<\/p>\n
B. High Latitudes<\/p>\n
Active 15\/15\/15
\nMinor Storm 10\/10\/20
\nMajor-severe storm 05\/05\/1<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
(short answer is that our Sun is very quiet for this part of the cycle, and nothing untoward is expected in the next few days)<\/p>\n
The other report we have is from SpaceWeather.com<\/a>:<\/p>\n
How long will the quiet last? The sun has not produced a major flare in weeks. NOAA forecasters say the trend is unlikely to change today with only a slim 15% chance of\u00a0M-flares\u00a0and a 1% chance of\u00a0X-class\u00a0flares.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ordinarily more sun spots means more solar storms. Get some sunspots combining and a major storm is possible.
\nBut right now it looks like there won’t even be a minor X -Class flare. NASA rates the odds at just 1%.
\nThe following is the latest Joint USAF\/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast:
\n\u00a0
\nIA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19\/2100Z to 20\/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
\nIB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
\n
\nIIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19\/2100Z to 20\/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak around 500 km\/s. Total IMF reached 7.2 nT …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[129,27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-solar-storm","category-sunspots"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4671"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4671\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4676,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4671\/revisions\/4676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}