{"id":3513,"date":"2012-07-01T21:56:49","date_gmt":"2012-07-01T11:56:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/?p=3513"},"modified":"2012-07-01T21:57:33","modified_gmt":"2012-07-01T11:57:33","slug":"8-0-quake-due-in-nz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/2012\/07\/8-0-quake-due-in-nz-3513.html","title":{"rendered":"8.0 Quake Due in NZ"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s an inexact science, but generally pressure builds up along\u00a0fault lines, and earthquakes happen in roughly regular manner.\u00a0Seismologists\u00a0can’t tell us the day or even year of a major earthquake, but they are pretty good at calculating when a big one is approximately due. And despite quakes in the last couple of years, big ones are kinda due for California, New Madrid, Japan and New Zealand. I would expect that one of these places will have their biggest quake for a long time during the current decade.<\/p>\n

It has now been determined<\/a> that there is an extra likelihood on NZ having a big quake soon. The West Coast might be sparsely populated, but Queenstown is mentioned, and that’s a special place for many Kiwis and tourists:<\/p>\n

GNS Science and University of Nevada-Reno scientists have found that the southern part of the 800 kilometre-long fault – which runs along the western edge of the Southern Alps from Marlborough to Milford Sound – causes quakes of around magnitude 8 every 330 years on average<\/strong>.<\/p>\n
Dating leaves and seeds from a river terrace at Hokuri Creek near Lake McKerrow in far northwestern Southland, just north of Milford Sound, revealed 24 Alpine Fault<\/a> quakes between 6000BC and the present.<\/p>\n
Other research has found the most recent was in 1717<\/strong>, meaning the next may be only 30 or 40 years away, based on averages.<\/p>\n
Professor Richard Norris, from the geology department at Otago University<\/a>, said the Alpine Fault had the highest level of probability for rupture of any fault in New Zealand.<\/p>\n
…Project leader Kelvin Berryman of GNS Science said “a major earthquake in the near future would not be a surprise”.<\/p>\n
“Equally it could be up to 100 years away. The bottom line is, if not in our lifetimes then increasingly likely in our children’s or our grandchildren’s.”<\/p>\n
…Most recurrence intervals longer than 295 years – the position now – were shorter than 400 years, and many were only slightly longer than 295 years<\/strong>.<\/p>\n
“That is, most of the time when a quake hasn’t happened for 295 years, it happens within the next century and often within the next half-century. … The risks are high, but that’s because it seems to be an unusually regular fault.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
It’s an inexact science, but generally pressure builds up along\u00a0fault lines, and earthquakes happen in roughly regular manner.\u00a0Seismologists\u00a0can’t tell us the day or even year of a major earthquake, but they are pretty good at calculating when a big one is approximately due. And despite quakes in the last couple of years, big ones are kinda due for California, New Madrid, Japan and New Zealand. I would expect that one of these places will have their biggest quake for a long time during the current decade.
\nIt has now been determined that there is an extra likelihood on NZ having a big quake soon. The West Coast might be sparsely populated, but Queenstown is mentioned, and that’s a special place for many Kiwis and tourists:
\nGNS Science and University of Nevada-Reno scientists have found that the southern part of the 800 kilometre-long fault – which runs along the western edge of the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earthquakes"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3513"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3513\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3519,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3513\/revisions\/3519"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}