{"id":3251,"date":"2012-06-08T19:27:27","date_gmt":"2012-06-08T09:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/?p=3251"},"modified":"2012-06-08T19:27:27","modified_gmt":"2012-06-08T09:27:27","slug":"tokai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/2012\/06\/tokai-3251.html","title":{"rendered":"Britton LaRoche: Lunar Eclipse Could Cause Tokai Quake"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment.<\/p>\n<p>The Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">[Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/geology.about.com\/od\/eq_prediction\/a\/aa_tokaiquake.htm\">About.com<\/a>]<\/p>\n<p>Shinichi Sakai from University of Tokyo predicted on 23. January 2012 probability of major earthquake during next four years is 70% and during 30 years is 98%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">[Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Tokai_earthquakes\">Wikipedia<\/a>]<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So it looks like a case of not if, but when. Well Britton LaRoche has been studying historical earthquake records, and like myself he has determined that lunar eclipses are a factor. Whilst I looked at global earthquakes, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.garagegames.com\/community\/blog\/view\/15946\/2\">Britton&#8217;s focus has been Japan<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a rel=\"attachment wp-att-3264\" href=\"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/?attachment_id=3264\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3264\" title=\"laroche\" src=\"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/laroche.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"180\" height=\"120\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for\u00a0saros 140. This same\u00a0saros (140)will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse,<strong> <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year<\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on\u00a0July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan&#8217;s shore.<\/p>\n<p>The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>For me, it has been enough to do my initial research (showing an increase in major quakes within one day of a lunar eclipse), and make a couple of blog posts about other people having similar conclusions. I&#8217;ve also <strong>emailed 15 earthquake scientists<\/strong> who I feel are best qualified to look at my data. They were not easy to choose, because they all tend to do very specialized or localized research, whereas my study is extremely general. So far only one (from the USGS)  has looked at the data and replied:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I&#8217;ve wondered the same thing.  Some geologists have argued that there is a slightly increased chance of earthquakes near full or new moons when gravitational exertions are at their greatest.  Others do not think there is enough significance to matter, since it is impossible to apply to earthquake predictions for specific places or dates.  In my own opinion, I think it&#8217;s interesting.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>A problem with this sort of research is when knowing when to stop. <strong>I&#8217;ve decided to stop.<\/strong> Otherwise, the directions you could take are never-ending:<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; are the resulting quakes location specific &#8211; under the eclipse path, at a 90\u00b0\u00a0angle&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8211; are the resulting quakes time specific &#8211; a certain time period before\/after an eclipse?<br \/>\n&#8211; is the effect cumulative, in that it only works when there haven&#8217;t been major quakes for a while?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From studying centuries of earthquake records, Japanese geologists have mapped out segments of the subduction zone that seem to rupture regularly and repeatedly. The part southwest of Tokyo, underlying the coast around Suruga Bay, is called the Tokai segment.<br \/>\nThe Tokai segment last ruptured in 1854, and before that in 1707. Both events were great earthquakes of magnitude 8.4. The segment ruptured in comparable events in 1605 and in 1498. The pattern is pretty stark: a Tokai earthquake has happened about every 110 years, plus or minus 33 years. As of 2005, it has been 151 years and counting.<br \/>\n[Source: About.com]<br \/>\nShinichi Sakai from University of Tokyo predicted on 23. January 2012 probability of major earthquake during next four years is 70% and during 30 years is 98%.<br \/>\n[Source: Wikipedia]<\/p>\n<p>So it looks like a case of not if, but when. Well Britton LaRoche has been studying historical earthquake records, and like myself he has &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239,298],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earthquakes","category-eclipses"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3251"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3251\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3284,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3251\/revisions\/3284"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/survive2012.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}<!-- WP Super Cache is installed but broken. 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