Another Supernova Threat

The standard spiel from orthodox science is that only supernovae within 100 light years of Earth could wipe us out. It's refreshing to see in an article (at Space.com) this admission:

Astronomers have previously said that any supernova explosion within 100 light-years of Earth would likely be devastating, but beyond 100 light-years, it's not known for sure what the effects might be. However, astronomers have also been keeping an eye on Eta Carinae, a potential supernova about 7,500 light-years away. One factor, astronomers say, is how powerful a given supernova is.

Nicely said. We don't know enough about supernovae to make predictions about one occurring in our vicinity. About all we do know is, all other things being equal, closer is more dangerous. But all supernovae are not equal, so we should still be wary of those that we are not 100% sure of.

Now we have a newly identified threat:

The two stars are in a close binary system called T Pyxidis, located in the Southern Hemisphere constellation Pyxis ("The Compass Box"). Researchers found that the system is only 3,260 light-years from our solar system – far closer than anyone previously thought.

...The new findings suggest the white dwarf, considered close to us by cosmic standards, could eventually go supernova. Gamma radiation emitted by the supernova could threaten the Earth with an energy equivalent to 1,000 simultaneous solar flares.

The production of nitrous oxides in Earth's atmosphere by the gamma rays could completely destroy the ozone layer, astronomers said.

Demise, if it comes, won't be anytime soon, however: Scientists' calculations suggest that the star will explode in about 10 million years...

Or, we could be in for a surprise. Another article says "Suffice it to say that we're far enough from T Pyxidis that we can't really tell exactly how big it is or how quickly it's accreting mass." And it's all just guesswork.

This story is news this week because the stars have been found to be far closer to us than previously thought. Nothing is set in concrete.

Dec 21 2011 is -366 Day

Like a NASA rocket launch, we can create a 2012 countdown. While several 2012 countdowns have been running for some time, an "official" countdown would have more gravity. I don't need to explain the power of "this time next year" and how it can translate globally.

So rather than just suggesting, I am stating: Dec 21 2011 will be known as -366 day. The reference to the leap year could lessen the wrath from the scientific community.

The concept is simple. On Dec 21 2011, merely take a trial run of whatever you believe will happen one year later.

If you have unconvinced family, it's a good opportunity to show them that the exercise is more like a campimg trip.

If you are unsure how committed you are, use this day to test our convictions.

If you have a Über-bunker in the distant highlands, use this day to test that everything works.

Or even just have a BBQ at your place and discuss 2012, laughingly.



...even non-2012ers could use this day as a NY resolution type event - enact what they intend to achieve 1 year from today..

Asteroids: We Aren't Prepared

NASA is looking, and does find asteroids. Unfortunately their efforts are far from comprehensive, and our planet is woefully under-prepared relative to our technical capabilities. A few months back New Scientist published what will hopefully be a wake-up call to politicians globally:

The asteroid is on a collision course with Earth. It is the size of a skyscraper and it's big enough to raze a city to the ground. Oh, and it will be here in three days.

Far-fetched it might seem, but this scenario is all too plausible. Certainly it is realistic enough that the US air force recently brought together scientists, military officers and emergency-response officials for the first time to assess the nation's ability to cope, should it come to pass.

They were asked to imagine how their respective organisations would respond to a mythical asteroid called Innoculatus striking the Earth after just three days' warning. The asteroid consisted of two parts: a pile of rubble 270 metres across which was destined to splash down in the Atlantic Ocean off the west coast of Africa, and a 50-metre-wide rock heading, in true Hollywood style, directly for Washington DC.

The exercise, which took place in December 2008, exposed the chilling dangers asteroids pose. Not only is there no plan for what to do when an asteroid hits, but our early-warning systems - which could make the difference between life and death - are woefully inadequate.

This graphic shows the areas in space that NASA checks for incoming asteroids. To be fair, these zones are where most would be likely to arrive from, but it is well short of the desired coverage:

Our chance of having any prior warning at all for an approaching 30-metre asteroid is no better than 25 to 35 per cent with existing sky surveillance, calculates astronomer Alan Harris of the Space Science Institute in Boulder, Colorado (see graphic). The sun washes out half of the sky with daylight, blinding us to 50 per cent of threatening objects. Even glare from the moon can hide unwelcome incoming guests.

What's more, two of the world's three leading asteroid surveys are based in Arizona, including the Catalina Sky Survey, which discovered 2008 TC3. The region tends to cloud over between July and September...

Read more about asteroids and comets in 2012

2012 Forum - Becoming Very International

With almost 6000 members and over 200,000 posts, 2012 forum has started to attract folk from more and more diverse parts of the planet. Here's a quick peek at how truly global the 2012 meme has become:

Russian survivalist shows off his amphibious armored vehicle, purchased for "1500 $ + 20 bottles of vodka + 1 pig"



A Scottish lass dreamed that she was at a "dock on top of a mountain unloading a ship. I was unloading Prams with babies in them. I looked at the sky, it was pink and I could see all the planets, they were lining up."

A Norwegian member skilled in "cars, electrics, electronics...computers, wood work, welding, metal shaping, stone work"

A South African member who has been "preparing for 2012 for the last 6 years."

An Argentinean survival community.

What if nothing happens in 2012?

This is a common question, and one that especially concerns 2012 prophets, 2012 fearmongers, and 2012 spiritual evolutionists - for they could all have egg on their face.

First of all, there's a good chance something will happen, because most years somewhere in the world there is a major story. 2012 will still have legs, because proponents of the meme will say things like:

• that earthquake / volcano / tsunami is the beginning of the end
• that politician just voted in is the anti-Christ
• that new scientific discovery will lead to something disastrous
• that piece of heart-warming good news indicates the start of a global spiritual uplifting

But also, don't dismiss the human ability to self-fulfill prophecy, in either a good or bad way. If enough people believe we will undergo a spiritual transformation in 2012, and cause it to happen within their selves - who knows what the flow on effects might be?

Conversely, if enough people fear the worst, and prepare for it, that could spiral out of control. The 2012 meme casts a wide net, and if aspects resemble the "commies under the bed" scenario of the 50s, fear could feed upon itself. In recent times we have seen how mild panic about a food shortage can spark a food shortage...

Then all we need is for a religious zealot to cause the reconstruction of the Temple Mount, sparking a Muslim v. Christian WW3... In short, don't underestimate the potential for humans to make 2012 something out of nothing.

WR 104 - Potential Space Nasty

I really like "bad astronomy" articles, but even more so when they admit they are scared. In this instance it is a binary star known as Wr 104. At a distance of 5000-8000 light years a supernova is not expected to harm us. But a Gamma Ray Burst might, especially if it is aimed straight at us!

GRBs are a special type of supernova. When a very massive star explodes, the inner core collapses, forming a black hole, while the outer layers explode outwards. Due to a complex and fierce collusion of forces in the core, two beams of raw fury can erupt out of the star, mind-numbing in their power. Composed mostly of high-energy gamma rays, they can carry more energy in them than the Sun will put out in its entire lifetime. They are so energetic we can see them clear across the Universe, and having one too close would be bad.

...Worse, the flood of subatomic particles from such a GRB may in fact be more dangerous. These cosmic rays hit the air and create fast particles called muons, which would rain down over the Earth. How bad is that? Actually, it’s pretty uncertain; the number of variables involved is large, and the modeling of this is notoriously difficult. It’s not even clear that the cosmic rays from a GRB at this distance would even reach us, and if they did, what exactly would happen. The worst-case scenario is pretty bad — large scale mass extinctions...

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2008/03/03/wr-104-a-nearby-gamma-ray-burst/

Nostradamus: Epistle to Henry II

For anyone who caught the recent cable TV shows regarding Nostradamus and 2012, here's something that might tickle your fancy:

Michel Nostradamus wrote an Epistle to Henry II in 1558 which basically described his prophecies, and seems more rooted in reality than his quatrains. Within it, he says:

...most of the prophetic quatrains are so ticklish that there is no making way through them, nor is there any interpreting of them.

But what caught my eye was:

This will be preceded by a solar eclipse more dark and gloomy than any since the creation of the world, except that after the death and passion of Jesus Christ. And it will be in the month of October than the great translation will be made and it will be such that one will think the gravity of the earth has lost its natural movement and that it is to be plunged into the abyss of perpetual darkness.

In the spring there will be omens, and thereafter extreme changes, reversals of realms and mighty earthquakes. These will be accompanied by the procreation of the new Babylon, miserable daughter enlarged by the abomination of the first holocaust. It will last for only seventy-three years and seven months.

It sounds like end-of-the-world talk... 73 years and 7 months, subtracted from Dec 21, 2012, gives us May 21, 1939. According to Wikipedia, nothing especially important to 2012 occurred on that date, although WW2 began a few months later, and part of that World War was a holocaust, as mentioned by Nostradamus.

But how could October fit? If the end-of-the-world is actually October 2011, then that gives us March 1938. That month, Germany annexed Austria, which could be argued as the true beginning of WW2. Harold Camping believes the end will occur on October 21, 2011...

Enjoy the rabbit hole ;)




...But what if procreation of the new Babylon means the creation of modern-day Israel in May 14, 1948? Adding 73 years and 7 months gives us Dec 2021. Is 2012 just a typo?

A Russian Solution to the Apophis non-problem

Universe Today recently reported a Russian plan to deflect an asteroid that is not expected to be a problem:

Russia is considering sending a spacecraft to deflect a large asteroid and prevent a possible collision with Earth, according to a radio interview by the head of the country's space agency. Anatoly Perminov said the space agency will hold a meeting soon to assess a mission to Apophis, and said NASA, ESA, the Chinese space agency and others would be invited to join the project. Apophis is a 270-meter (885-foot) asteroid that was spotted in 2004. It is projected to come within 29,450 kilometers (18,300 miles) of Earth in 2029, and currently has an estimated 1-in-250,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2036.

Perminov said that he heard from a scientist that Apophis is getting closer and may hit the planet. "I don't remember exactly, but it seems to me it could hit the Earth by 2032," Perminov said. "People's lives are at stake. We should pay several hundred million dollars and build a system that would allow to prevent a collision, rather than sit and wait for it to happen and kill hundreds of thousands of people."

The poor guy has received lot of flak in the media about his uncertainty regarding the date, but to be fair it was a radio interview, not a press release...

There are several reasons why Perminov spoke of the Russian plans:

• they could be genuinely be planning such a mission, so that when a real threat arrives, the world will be ready, thanks to Russia
• they could just be trying to embarrass the US to work harder on this scenario
• it could be spin, a cover of sorts for the asteroid/comet they know will be hitting us in 2012 (pure paranoid speculation based on their mega-bunkers)

Post-2012 Gear: Kyoto Box

If anything good ever comes from the poverty in Africa, it's the recent ingenious inventions providing self-help at affordable prices. Although the aim is to provide cooking/boiling facilities for the poor, this is a great concept for a post-cataclysm scenario. The parts are easily scavenged, and most people would have the skills to construct a Kyoto Box. Therefore boiling water and cooking food should be easy to achieve for just about anyone.

It might look a bit primitive and simplistic, but it is 400 times more cost effective than photovoltaics - and that's if you buy one ready made. If you recycle, it's basically free.

All you need is:

• 2 cardboard boxes - one a little smaller than the other
• a knife
• black spray paint
• aluminium foil
• glue
• duct tape
• insulation / packing material

In terms of scavenging, a supermarket or hardware store, and a dumpster are about all you'd need to source the above items.

Here's the official site - if you want you could just buy a few to add to your supplies. Over at How Stuff Works is a video demonstrating it.

Thank You, eBay

The postie knocks on our door more days than not, delivering parcels. Most of these are used books I've sourced from around the globe that have some connection to 2012. For people like me, leaving no stone unturned, that's a lot of books. We don't know what will happen in 2012, so many topics need to be traversed.

Last year I wrote a piece on Comet Caesar (which is the cover story this month, Hard Evidence magazine, only available in Australia I feel). That was easy - one book on the comet itself, and less than a dozen on killer comets in general. But for the 2012 meme there is no limit to the number of books I can potentially buy.

There is, however, a limit to how many I can read, even if I had the good fortune to work on 2012 full-time. At some point I need to admit that I'm buying books I'll never get to read prior to Dec 2012.

Thank you eBay! My weekly ritual of checking out books for sale in the Non Fiction / History / Ancient History is over. History is now as deep as you can drill - the subcategories have been removed. Instead of looking through a thousand books, there are 6,000.

Too hard, I give up. No more commissions for eBay, no more searching from me. From here on in, it'll be less buying and more reading. 2012 is getting too close.

----

Oh yeah, the point of the post: 2012 is a massive subject, probably only equal to philosophical topics. If you go too narrow, you'll most likely completely miss what will really happen in 2012. If you go too wide, you'll get in a tangle (unless you are some kind of idiot savant). To achieve the level of 2012 knowledge you need, put some effort into defining your boundaries of research.

For me this includes:

- nothing channeled
- nothing UFO
- no lizard people
- nothing purely New Age
- no modern-day prophets