Solar Cycle Will Be Weakest...Or Not?

It wasn't very long ago that we were being told to brace for, in 2012, the biggest solar maximum for some time. Now some scientists are predicting that it will be "the weakest since 1928".

The panel now expects the sun's activity will peak about a year late, in May 2013, when it will boast an average of 90 sunspots per day. That is below average for solar cycles, making the coming peak the weakest since 1928, when an average of 78 sunspots was seen daily.

So there's nothing to worry about, except:

"The panel consensus is not my individual opinion," says panel member Mausumi Dikpati of the High Altitude Observatory in Boulder, Colorado.

Dikpati and her colleagues have developed a solar model that predicts a bumper crop of sunspots and a cycle that is 30% to 50% stronger than the previous cycle, Cycle 23.

Such disparate predictions are similar to the global warming debate. Perhaps they are connected after all?

Solar Cycle 24 - revised prediction says not as bad

On the left is a prediction by NASA scientist Dr. David Hathaway, from 2006, of the intensity of the next solar cycle, peaking in 2012.

On the right is his revised opinion - that it will less next time round, not more. The changes are quite dramatic:

Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in March 2006: 145
Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in October 2008: 137
Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in January 2009: 104

...and highlight how difficult it is to predict - basically because they know very little about how it all works. Don't be surprised if the sunspot maximum is 200 or 50, or even zero.

His official solar prediction page is at NASA. I was alerted to it by WhatsUpWithThat.com.