2012 Blog » Supernova

NASA: No Supernova in 2012

Robert Bast — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 22:19:04 +0000

Before we get to the debunk itself, here’s a couple of thoughts:

LAZY: The first 3 pages on Google for 2012 supernova find a straight-to-video mockbuster movie of the same name, and a website called 2012supernova.org that doesn’t actually mention supernovas. And that’s it. They are debunking something that didn’t need debunking because nobody believes it.

Of course now there’s a web page about it written by NASA…

NO DISCLAIMER: Every time scientists tell us about space, they should really put a disclaimer at the bottom, saying: We are constantly learning about outer space, every year we find many things that we didn’t expect, and everything we tell you could be proven to be wrong if new data arrives.

The NASA debunk itself is pretty standard:

Yes – supernovae and gamma-ray bursts could fry us.
No – there’s no stars or black holes close enough to harm us, and anyway they won’t happen soon.

Given the incredible amounts of energy in a supernova explosion – as much as the sun creates during its entire lifetime – another erroneous doomsday theory is that such an explosion could happen in 2012 and harm life on Earth. However, given the vastness of space and the long times between supernovae, astronomers can say with certainty that there is no threatening star close enough to hurt Earth.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-supernova.html

The problem is that they lie by omission. Determining if something from space can harm us requires an equation. I have no idea how to formulate a scientific equation for supernovae and GMBs, but I do know that an equation has more than one part. So in layman’s terms it would go like this:

Force / Distance = Harm

If our Sun goes supernova, we are dead. If a star 1 billion light years away that is the size of our Sun goes supernova, we are safe. That’s distance.

But the other variable is force. The size of a star might not be the only indicator, and there’s might be different types of supernova – imagine a supernova jet! This is from Space.com:

Astronomers have previously said that any supernova explosion within 100 light-years of Earth would likely be devastating, but beyond 100 light-years, it’s not known for sure what the effects might be. However, astronomers have also been keeping an eye on Eta Carinae, a potential supernova about 7,500 light-years away. One factor, astronomers say, is how powerful a given supernova is.

The debunk was written by a senior staff writer, so there’s no excuse for ignoring recent science news on the topic:

Jan 2011: Gamma Rays have been detected from a nova (not to be confused with a supernova) for the first time, something that has surprised scientists.
March 2010: T Pyxidis, 3260 light years away, could go supernova at any time.
Feb 2010: A GRB from Wr 104 could harm us.
April 2009: Stefan Immler of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center suggests that Eta Carinae could explode in our lifetime or even in the next few years.
Feb 2009: A flash in space that lasted 200 days puzzles scientists. One suggestion is that it is a new type of supernova.
April 2008: Supernova SN 2006gy was 100x brighter than usual.

And just a few days ago I reported on the super-massive black holes that have been discovered…

NASA: No Supernova in 2012 is a post from: 2012 Blog

Sea Rise Ark / Irish Giant Gene / Betelgeuse

Robert Bast — Fri, 21 Jan 2011 04:53:48 +0000

Experts are saying the sea levels will rise by 13 feet in the next thousand years. This is the first time such a long-range forecast has been made, and presumably the authors will never see their work disproved. I presume this work, which focuses on climate change, does not consider that the long-term rise since the last Ice Age will cause a good degree of rise anyway. The good news is an architectural group has designed an extravagant ark to survive the rising sea (seemingly moving to higher ground is not an option).

A race of giants may have sprung from a mutant gene that first emerged around 1,500 years ago and causes uncontrolled body growth, scientists believe. The ‘gigantism gene’ was identified in the DNA of an 18th century man known as the Irish Giant who stood almost eight feet tall. Make it 10,000 years and I suggest this mutation arose during the last global cataclysm. Or 3,000 years and it makes sense of the Bible, which tells us “there were giants on the Earth in those days, and also afterward” (Gen 6:4).

News.com.au mentions the rumors concerning Betelgeuse going supernova in 2012. While the explosion could occur tomorrow, or in 2012, it could also happen 1 million years from now.

Sea Rise Ark / Irish Giant Gene / Betelgeuse is a post from: 2012 Blog

Will Betelgeuse Go Supernova?

Robert Bast — Sat, 18 Sep 2010 22:36:30 +0000

There has been enough internet chatter for the Bad Astronomy blog to address the subject. The known facts appear to be:

The shape of Betelgeuse is changing, indicating a potential supernova – although it might be many, many years away…
Orthodox science says that only a supernova of 25 light years away (or closer) could harm us, but Betelgeuse at 600 light years cannot
When it does explode, it will be as bright in the sky as the full moon. But appearing much smaller, it will be more intense, and perhaps painful to look at directly

My key concern is the absolute certainty scientists seem to have regarding the harm that can come from supernovas more distant than 25 light years. We receive regular reports of new types of supernova, or stars that do not fit pre-existing models. It seems quite clear that our knowledge of stars is far from complete, that new types of stars and supernova are bound to be discovered, and something bigger and nastier than we have observed to date will exist. To suggest that we are 100% safe is naive.

Nothing travels faster than light, but we can potentially be hit with radiation directly after a supernova becomes visible. If you see a supernova, quit staring and get ye to a bunker or similar ASAP. If it turns out to be nothing, you can watch it on YouTube later. If it is a catastrophe, you’ll be one of the few that ducked for cover.

Will Betelgeuse Go Supernova? is a post from: 2012 Blog

Another Supernova Threat

Robert Bast — Sat, 13 Mar 2010 11:07:00 +0000

The standard spiel from orthodox science is that only supernovae within 100 light years of Earth could wipe us out. It’s refreshing to see in an article (at Space.com) this admission:

Astronomers have previously said that any supernova explosion within 100 light-years of Earth would likely be devastating, but beyond 100 light-years, it’s not known for sure what the effects might be. However, astronomers have also been keeping an eye on Eta Carinae, a potential supernova about 7,500 light-years away. One factor, astronomers say, is how powerful a given supernova is.

Nicely said. We don’t know enough about supernovae to make predictions about one occurring in our vicinity. About all we do know is, all other things being equal, closer is more dangerous. But all supernovae are not equal, so we should still be wary of those that we are not 100% sure of.

Now we have a newly identified threat:

The two stars are in a close binary system called T Pyxidis, located in the Southern Hemisphere constellation Pyxis (“The Compass Box”). Researchers found that the system is only 3,260 light-years from our solar system – far closer than anyone previously thought.

…The new findings suggest the white dwarf, considered close to us by cosmic standards, could eventually go supernova. Gamma radiation emitted by the supernova could threaten the Earth with an energy equivalent to 1,000 simultaneous solar flares.

The production of nitrous oxides in Earth’s atmosphere by the gamma rays could completely destroy the ozone layer, astronomers said.

Demise, if it comes, won’t be anytime soon, however: Scientists’ calculations suggest that the star will explode in about 10 million years…

Or, we could be in for a surprise. Another article says “Suffice it to say that we’re far enough from T Pyxidis that we can’t really tell exactly how big it is or how quickly it’s accreting mass.” And it’s all just guesswork.

This story is news this week because the stars have been found to be far closer to us than previously thought. Nothing is set in concrete.

Another Supernova Threat is a post from: 2012 Blog

Supernova Theory Wrong?

Robert Bast — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 23:41:00 +0000

It looks like the previously accepted theory regarding the life cycle of Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) stars is faulty. It had been thought that LBVs needed to first evolve a massive iron core of nuclear fusion ash, lose most of their hydrogen envelope, and only then would they be primed for a core implosion that would trigger a supernova.

However before and after photos of supernova SN 2005gl have shown that pre-explosion it was a LBV that had not lost most of its hydrogen envelope. This places it in the same category of LBV Eta Carinae, which is only 7500 light years from Earth.

From Wikipedia:

Due to the similarity of Eta Carinae and SN 2006jc, Stefan Immler of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center suggests that Eta Carinae could explode in our lifetime or even in the next few years. However, Stanford Woosley of the University of California in Santa Cruz disagrees with Immler’s suggestion, and he says it is likely that Eta Carinae is at an earlier stage of evolution and that it has several kinds of material left for nuclear fusion.

Supernova Theory Wrong? is a post from: 2012 Blog

Spooky Action from Supernova in 3113BC?

Robert Bast — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 11:15:00 +0000

Swiss physicists have unleashed a large-scale experiment that proves what Einstein described as “spooky action at a distance.” Although this has been proven previously, this is the first time it has been shown to work over a long distance.

From Geneva they sent a pair of photons along fiber-optic cables, one to each village. When they measured one photon upon its arrival, the other changed instantaneously —though it was 11 miles away. This weird linkage, called quantum entanglement, raises exotic possibilities like teleportation. When two particles are entangled, the measurement of one immediately affects the other, no matter how distant.

…One might assume that one particle sent an ultrafast signal to its partner, says physicist Nicolas Gisin, a member of the University of Geneva team. If that were true, the quantum communiqué would have traveled at more than 10,000 times the speed of light, something difficult to reconcile with the known laws of physics.

The story is one of the top 100 science stories of 2008, as recently judged by Discover magazine.

I find this topic interesting because it is the foundation of one of the more bizarre ideas I have had for 2012 – perhaps the 2012 event was not predicted by the Mayans, but rather seen. If information can travel faster than light, yet the damage a supernova can cause will travel just under the speed of light, the news could get here thousands of years beforehand.

Therefore it might be possible to deduce, if the information arrived in 3113BC, and the damage will arrive in 2012AD, how far away the object is, and possibly identify it.

Spooky Action from Supernova in 3113BC? is a post from: 2012 Blog

Unidentified Flash from Space

Robert Bast — Mon, 09 Feb 2009 12:28:00 +0000

Supernovae usually flare for 3-7 weeks, so scientists don’t think SCP 06F6 is one, as it “continued to brighten over the next 100 days, peaked, and then finally faded to oblivion over another 100 days.”

According to the report at Wired:

The scientists can tell very little about the source of the flash — not even how far away it is, or how intrinsically bright. That means it could have come from some event in our own galaxy, or from some distant region of the universe. There is no visible star or galaxy at the site of flash to offer hints of what caused it.

Since the astronomers first announced the mystery sighting, many experts have offered guesses about what type of phenomenon could be behind it. Suggestions include a new type of supernova (such as the collapse and explosion of a unique star), a collision between a white dwarf star and a black hole, or even an exotic star made out of hypothetical “mirror matter.”

…Some are even joking that it could have been caused by an alien civilization that had just turned on its own version of the Large Hadron Collider and blown itself up.

I find it ironic that there are so many mysteries like this one, yet orthodox science assures us that we are completely safe.

Unidentified Flash from Space is a post from: 2012 Blog

Eta Carinae – A Risk to Earth?

Robert Bast — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 05:53:00 +0000

According to a recent report, it could affect Earth when it goes supernova, but not in a way you’d think…

The Good News (according to current models)
——————————————-

Fortunately, Eta Carinae is far away, at least 7,500 light-years from Earth. If it explodes, most of its energy will be scattered or absorbed in the vast emptiness of space. It also happens to be tilted about 45 degrees from the line of sight to Earth, so any type of gamma-ray burst, a high-energy outburst expected with this star’s eventual eruption, would miss the Earth. Cosmic rays would be diffused by magnetic fields, and most of the damaging light would not affect life on Earth.

The Potentially Bad News
————————-

But what if a supernova were 100 times brighter than usual? Would there be any risk to life on Earth then? Astronomers found such a record-breaking supernova last year, SN 2006gy.

It turns out that even though SN 2006gy was one of the brightest supernovae ever recorded, it did not generate a large amount of X-rays. Thomas and his team found most of the light, including damaging X-rays and cosmic rays, would scatter into space before ever reaching Earth.

So would there be any damage to Earth from such a spectacular event? Though Thomas found X-rays and cosmic rays would cause little damage, he also looked at optical light, particularly short-wavelength blue light (400 nanometers), where the spectrum of SN 2006gy peaked. No one had ever considered the effects of this light before, either from supernovae or any other type of event.

…In a paper about to be published in the journal Astrobiology, Thomas explains that even short exposures to blue light can increase insomnia, reduce resistance to infection and is being studied as a possible risk of cancer.

Yet, in the case of Eta Carinae, the effect of these optical photons would be minimal. The scattering of photons by dust and gas is greatest at blue wavelengths (thus giving Earth its blue sky) and the sheer distance of Eta Carinae diminishes the optical intensity by about 20 percent.

Of course, there’s nothing stopping Eta Carinae being 100x brighter than any previous supernova. But because such a supernova hasn’t been witnessed yet, orthodox science won’t accept it as a possibility.

Eta Carinae – A Risk to Earth? is a post from: 2012 Blog