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Protecting Earth: Governments Finally Getting Serious

July 26th, 2010 by Robert Bast | 1 Comment | Filed in Asteroids, solar storm

The timing could be better, because Dec 2012 is only 2.5 years away, but better late than never!

Last month, Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R – CA) introduced the new bill before Congress, H.R. 5587, titled: “To establish a United States Commission on Planetary Defense and for other purposes.”

The commission will investigate the role of the United States in identifying NEOs (Near-Earth Objects), and their capabilities for neutralising any potential impacts. The budget is a pitiful $2 million, and has me wondering why Congress is even needed to debate the worthiness of it. Most scientists working in this field would tell you that there is no doubt about what is required – a huge amount of money to be spent ASAP. We have the capability to protect our planet, and so far we are sitting on our hands…

Meanwhile over at Space Daily is a report on a meeting in Germany attended by experts from 25 countries, discussing the risks we face from our Sun:

“Imagine trying to monitor Earth’s oceans with a small number of buoys. You’d miss a lot. That’s the situation we’re in now with the ‘ocean of space,’” says Guhathakurta.

China is about to contribute a space-buoy known as “KuaFu,” named after a giant in Chinese mythology who wished to capture the sun. Kuafu will be located at the L1 Lagrange point where it will sample the solar wind upstream from Earth.

“We’re putting KuaFu at a strategic point in space,” says Wu. “The solar wind at L1 is an important input to many science models of the sun-Earth interaction.”

When KuaFu launches it will join a growing international fleet of spacecraft dedicated to heliophysics. NASA, the European Space Agency, the Russian Federal Space Agency, the Canadian Space Agency, JAXA and China are all making significant contributions.

And just in time…

If forecasters are correct, the solar cycle will peak during the years around 2013. And while it probably won’t be the biggest peak on record, human society has never been more vulnerable.

The basics of daily life-from communications to weather forecasting to financial services-depend on satellites and high-tech electronics. A 2008 report by the National Academy of Sciences warned that a century-class solar storm could cause billions in economic damage.

Preparing for a “solar Katrina,” launching a new science, harnessing the talents of scientists around the globe: “These are just a few of our goals for this week’s meeting,” says Guhathakurta.

As outlined in the bill, the purposes of the commission would be to:

  • Determine capabilities of United States Government entities, nongovernment organizations, foreign governments and entities, and international bodies to detect, characterize, and neutralize potentially dangerous Near Earth Objects;
  • Identify and evaluate roles and responsibilities of United States Government entities to detect, characterize, and neutralize potentially dangerous NEOs;
  • Determine United States effectiveness in leading international efforts to detect, characterize, and neutralize potentially dangerous NEOs;
  • Build upon United States Government and foreign analyses, studies, and assessments, without duplicating efforts, to determine current and required NEO characterization and mitigation capabilities;
  • Identify and report on technology development required to provide effective planetary defense from dangerous NEOs; and
  • Investigate and report to the President and Congress on its findings, conclusions, and recommendations for corrective measures that can be taken to provide planetary defense.

Meanwhile at New Scientist (June 23, 2010), Russian scientists figure that solar storms could affect some previously un-thought-of human activities. Even a minor storm could cause railway signals to go haywire, and oil pipelines to rust so much that they may leak – especially when you get closer to the poles, regions which have less protection from the Sun.

Relatively minor space storms now appear to be behind a range of mysterious mishaps – railway signals malfunctioning in Archangel province in north-western Russia, for example, between 2000 and 2005. A study led by Eugenia Eroshenko of the Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation in Troitsk, Russia, examined episodes when signals turned red for minutes or even hours though the track ahead was clear, then spontaneously reverted to green.

Eroshenko’s team found that 16 malfunctions of this sort observed between 2000 and 2005 coincided with space storms (Advances in Space Research, DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2010.05.017). “We were surprised by such a clear correlation,” Eroshenko says

Solar Storm Havoc

Solar Storm Could Cause $2 Trillion in Damage!

January 7th, 2009 by Rob | No Comments | Filed in solar storm

Just in from SpaceWeather.com, news of a study that quantifies the potential damage of the worst solar storms:

The 132-page document examines what might happen to our high-tech modern society in the event of a super solar flare followed by an extreme geomagnetic storm. Such a storm did occur in the year 1859. It electrified telegraph lines, shocking technicians and setting telegraph papers on fire; Northern Lights as far south as Cuba were so bright, you could read a newspaper by their eerie glow.

According to the report, “a contemporary repetition of that event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions.” The report warns of widespread failures in telecommunications, electric power, banking and finance, and transportation; even water supplies could be disrupted. The total economic impact in the first year alone could reach $2 trillion–about 15 times greater than the costs of Hurricane Katrina. Depending on damage, full recovery from the solar storm could take 4 to 6 years.

No one knows how often super solar storms occur. We’ve only seen one like it in the past 200 years. The next one could be another 200 years away–or just 200 days. All the more reason to study space weather!

And that is just the economic impact. With power disruptions you can get looting. Damaged infrastructure could lead spark civil unrest – it might be hard to purchase food if you rely on a credit card… Some governments (yes you, Mr Bush) have proven to be inept when dealing with lesser catastrophes.

Was the storm of 1859 the worst possible? According to Scientific American, “ice cores suggest that such a blast of solar particles happens only once every 500 years, but even the storms every 50 years could fry satellites, jam radios and cause coast-to-coast blackouts.” Could there be a once-in-5000-year storm that is another magnitude worse?