There has been considerable difficulty trying to determine if a magnetic pole shift will occur in 2012. The underlying problem is that orthodox science has not been able to work out how our planet’s magnetic field ticks, and all we have seen is guesswork.

According to Wikipedia:

There is no clear theory as to how the geomagnetic reversals might have occurred. Some scientists have produced models for the core of the Earth wherein the magnetic field is only quasi-stable and the poles can spontaneously migrate from one orientation to the other over the course of a few hundred to a few thousand years. Other scientists propose that the geodynamo first turns itself off, either spontaneously or through some external action like a comet impact, and then restarts itself with the magnetic “North” pole pointing either North or South.

Current theories are not capable of producing predictions of when the next reversal might occur. Consequently we have no available science that can support any pole shift predictions for 2012.

Until now…

Earth’s magnetic field, long thought to be generated by molten metals swirling around its core, may instead be linked to ocean currents, according to controversial new research published this week.

It suggests that the movements of such volumes of salt water around the world have been seriously underestimated by scientists as a source of magnetism.

If proven, the research would revolutionise geophysics, the study of the Earth’s physical properties and behaviour, in which the idea that magnetism originates in a molten core is a central tenet.

The Times article goes on to say:

The salt in seawater allows it to conduct electricity, meaning it generates electrical and magnetic fields as it moves.

Scientists have always linked variation with turbulence in the outer core, but Ryskin suggests it actually correlates with changes in ocean circulation. In the north Atlantic, for example, changes in the strength of currents were matched by sharp changes in magnetic fields.

One idea is that changes in ocean circulation may explain the curious reversals shown by Earth’s magnetic field, in which the north and south magnetic poles suddenly flip over. This last happened 780,000 years ago.

This could also be linked to tectonic plate movements that have shifted the world’s land masses around the globe, forcing ocean currents to adopt entirely new routes.

If Ryskin is right, then climate change, predicted to alter the strength and course of ocean currents, could also alter the planet’s magnetic field.

…some other physicists have been quick to recognise its implications. Raymond Shaw, professor of atmospheric physics at Michigan Technological University, said it could make “the ruling paradigm of geophysics irrelevant”.

Suddenly we find ourselves in a situation where the impact of global warming & climate change might now include a magnetic reversal.