Solar Cycle 24 - revised prediction says not as bad
On the left is a prediction by NASA scientist Dr. David Hathaway, from 2006, of the intensity of the next solar cycle, peaking in 2012.
On the right is his revised opinion - that it will less next time round, not more. The changes are quite dramatic:
Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in March 2006: 145
Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in October 2008: 137
Hathaway’s predicted Cycle 24 maximum in January 2009: 104
...and highlight how difficult it is to predict - basically because they know very little about how it all works. Don't be surprised if the sunspot maximum is 200 or 50, or even zero.
His official solar prediction page is at NASA. I was alerted to it by WhatsUpWithThat.com.
Labels: solar cycle 24
posted by Rob at
Thursday, February 05, 2009
3 Comments:
hei i m sorry but i don't see any discussion area in this blog..........that's y m posting my question here................i heard there are news that Obama is gonna reveal the truth about UFO soon........is it right ........can someone please post a topic in this blog related to this new Obama Change.............and please create a discussion window or area for non members and members to talk or ask any question..............pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
obama is a fiscally responsible idiot of george bush principles to the 29th power. secondly, with the failure of the particle collider i believe (a little behind the ball i am) that the estimated time of collision at or near light speed is sometime in 2012. that really bothers me, i'm not a believer in these things nor do i believe the myan caladar ended there for any reason other than the fact that they were interuptd by more ethical but less intelligent people. but one can't help but not think to themselves " why not wait a year or 2 to POSSibly create a black hole. that which we believe to be the most uncontrolled absorbtion of mass energy and light in our known science. do u have any info of who we can contact that can really impact the decision of when this experiment takes place? don't get me wrong , i'm all for anything that advances us but this seems to me to be a little bit like skipping 10 or 20 chapters and hoping to understand the results,......if we are here lol.
The May 3 2009 prediction:
e panel has decided that the next solar cycle will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the predicted date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May, 2013.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html
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